New Housing Index Benefits Forex Market Investors

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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As most Forex market traders utilize fundamental analysis to plan their market strategies, the news of a newly developed housing index is making waves in the industry. Up until now, the most common housing index used by Forex traders to predict future currency movement was the S&P/Case-Stiller home price index. This index tracks price change movements in the housing market in 20 different metropolitan regions throughout the country. It measures average price changes on re-sold properties in those designated indexed areas. The indices are published on a monthly basis with a two-month lag. The new housing index (the IAS360), developed by a Denver based company, takes a broader (and different) view of price changes in the U.S. market.

The IAS360 in detail

The IAS360 housing index addresses some of the inherent weaknesses of the commonly used S&P/Case-Stiller home price index. This new index analyzes housing trend changes on a deeper, wider level (360 counties, with 30 reported indices). This broader picture of reality is especially helpful in a time of a downturn since it can give indications of counter movements in emerging markets. For instance, by utilizing the IAS360 housing index, certain markets that would not have been analyzed by other indices such as the S&P/Case-Stiller index, could show actual growth. That in turn could be the fore bringer for renewed growth in the overall market, which might have been missed by a more limited housing index indicator.

The median sales price

The IAS360 index analyzes data based upon the median sales price, whereas other indices analyze data based on average sales prices. The median sales price method (takes the middle price between the highest and lowest prices) paints a more realistic picture than the average sales price method since it’s not skewed towards the highest or lowest priced homes.

Timely reporting

Timely reporting is crucial in determining trends and knowing when to invest in the markets. As opposed to the two-month lag in reporting with the S&P/Case-Stiller index (i.e. May figures come out in the last week of July), IAS360 numbers are published with only about a month’s lag time (i.e. May figures are released in early July). With timelier reporting, the investor can make a better-informed trade decision.

How Are Interest Rates Set?

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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How Are Interest Rates Set

How are interest rates set — a common question received by those who broker loans. The first thing most clients or prospective clients will ask is “how are rates doing?” Or, “what rate can I get?” It’s understandable as the interest rate determines in large part as to what your monthly payment will be. Fundamentally, the interest rate is what you pay the lender in exchange for their lending you the money for your home loan.

How Are Rates Set?

So, how are rates set? Generally speaking, the longer the loan the more the risk to the lender and consequently the higher the rate. Of course, it’s not as simple as that for there are a number of factors that determine how rates are set. Here’s the nitty-gritty as to how your California home loan interest rate is set. There are three fundamental forces that determine interest rates in the United States. They are:
The Federal Reserve
The Bond Market
Multiple Forces in The Economy
The Federal Reserve
The “Fed” as it is commonly called determines US monetary policy for the entire country. There was no central federal banking system in the US from 1783 to 1913 but that all changed with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Ostensibly, it is the central bank of the US. Don’t let the term “Federal Reserve” throw you — it is NOT a federal US government institution or department.

It is a privately-held organization. There are 12 regional Federal Reserve System banks throughout the US. In addition, the Federal Reserve seeks to constantly adapt its various monetary policies in a concerted effort to combat inflationary and deflationary pressures brought about due to changes in the domestic or global economy. The Federal Reserve Board members meet eight times a year and generally only changes rates during a meeting. The 12-member Federal Reserve Board can control interest rates by changing the rates it charges banks to borrow money.

Here’s how it can influence rates. The Federal Reserve loans banks funds from their district Federal Reserve bank who pledge their commercial paper as collateral. The Fed essentially charges the borrowing bank interest on the loan. This is called the discount rate. Banks or lenders then lend the consumer or borrower money charging their primary interest rate. The implications are self-evident. The higher the discount rate the Fed charges the bank, the higher the primary interest rate will be to the borrower as the bank wants to meet the minimum requirements as well as make a profit.

Many people think that when they hear the Federal Reserve Chairman make a monetary policy change with the Prime rate, it automatically affects interest rates. Not so. The Prime rate increase or decrease may affect a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC), but it wouldn’t affect interest rates. Interest rates also fluctuate with the various loan programs available to the borrower. (For more information on Loan Programs within this site, please click here.)

The Bond Market

The bond market fluctuates on a daily basis and is a major determinant in the setting of interest rates. In fact, one can actually guess with an astonishing degree of accuracy as to any movement within a business day if there will be a rate adjustment, whether up or down, based on what the bond market is doing, specifically the 10 year bond. For clarity’s sake, there a couple of different bonds that affect interest rates. They are:
The 2 Year Bond
The 5 Year Bond
The 10 Year Bond
The 30 Year Bond
The primary bonds that affect interest rates are the 10 year and the 5 year bond. To see actual, real time fluctuations in the bond market, go here at http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter/ to see current prices for bonds. This is the one I view daily. The bond market is highly volatile. How do you read the graphs so as to know if interest rates will have a spike downward or upward?

While looking at the 10 year price graph (the farthest one on the right), if the 10 year price has a massive swing upward from say 99 28/32 to 103 28/32, rates most likely will have a decrease from current levels. On a daily basis, California loan agents receive rate sheets from lenders (we work with over 400 lenders so they are plentiful).

If the bond market fluctuation merits an increase or decrease in the loan broker’s yield spread premium (their rebate), it will in turn affect the interest rate that is quoted to a client, which in this example would be a lower rate. If the bond price doesn’t have much of a fluctuation during a normal business day, the rate will not move. Every day, in the morning, rates are received in the office. If a price adjustment is required, the primary lenders will immediately issue an adjustment rate sheet to their broker partners.

As I’ve said, interest rates are set based on the yield in the bond market at any given time. Let’s show an example. If, for example, a $100,000.00 bond falls in value to $95,000.00, the corresponding yield (return) is significantly higher. Because the yield is higher, the prevailing interest rate that is set for the mortgage must offset the higher yield and provide a return on the mortgage for the lending institution. With all things being equal, the rates on fixed rate mortgages would tend to rise.

Multiple Forces in The Economy

There are many factors influencing interest rates for your California home loan in the US economy. Higher interest rates can cause fluctuations in the stock market which in turn affects the bond market. In fact, the bond market and the stock market are opposite sides of the same coin. One can’t move without the other. If the US Dollar rallies, bonds dip; when oil prices dip, bonds can as well. Generally speaking, when the bond market is up, the stock market is down. In addition, if economic news is worse or better than expected, it will cause a fluctuation in the US dollar currency pairs in the spot Foreign Exchange market (the FOREX), which can affect the bond market and in turn rates.

A quick example. A couple of weeks ago from this writing, the US New Jobs report was projected at 350,000 — it only came in at 10% of that or 35,000. Once the report was announced, literally IMMEDIATELY the GBP/USD currency pair (Great British Pound and US Dollar) spiked upward. The GBP dramatically increased in strength with the US Dollar becoming weaker. One FOREX trader I know literally made $3,500 in five minutes as he projected the claims to be much less than expected.

Also, interest rates dropped that day due to the lackluster jobs report. Coming into the office that day, a wise loan agent would have locked some loans or at the least knew interest rates would had gone down that day. Truly, the US economy is a highly interdependent organism that is very fluid and dynamic — it is never static or motionless. Some of the key economic indicators that affect the economy, and in turn interest rates, are:
Durable Goods Orders
New Home Sales
US Trade Balance
Jobless Rate
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
Fed Chairman Greenspan Speech Before Congress

The key economic indicators that can affect the bond market with corresponding fluctuations are:
Consumer Confidence
Retail Sales
Manufacturing Activity
Industrial Production
Jobs Growth
Inflation

There you have it. There are many forces at work in determining what your rate is on any given day. So the next time you ask a loan agent, “what are rates like today?” You’ll see there’s a lot behind it.

Energy Prices, Inflation and Forex

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Oil futures surged to a record intraday high of $70.85 on August 30th, the day after Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the Gulf Coast. While prices have moderated in subsequent weeks, it’s worth examining how higher commodity prices and the specter of inflation impacts the foreign exchange (FX) market, particularly the U.S. dollar.

Traditional supply and demand factors certainly have contributed to the longer term trend in energy prices. The demand side of the equation has been getting plenty of press this year, with focus on the rapidly growing thirst for oil in both China and India. However, the recent spike in oil can primarily be attributed to hurricane related speculation in the futures market and the limited and centralized (on the Gulf Coast) refining capacity of the U.S.

Economic data released in recent weeks has begun to reflect the effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which ravaged the U.S. Gulf Coast in August and September. These data reinforce what the Fed has been implying all along; that the economy is growing at a brisk pace and that inflation, not recession, should be the concern.

September jobs data showed the first net job losses since May of 2003, but the decline of 35,000 jobs was much smaller than the decline that was anticipated. September CPI showed the largest monthly gain in 25 years. However, when the volatile food and energy components are removed, inflation was a rather mild 0.1%. That was quite a bit less than the market was anticipating and suggests that the higher energy prices are not being passed through to the core number yet.

Similarly, the September PPI headline number exceeded expectation and was the largest monthly gain in 15 years. However, again we remove food and energy and see that wholesale prices were up a relatively restrained 0.3%. This core number did beat expectations though, so one might deduce that higher energy prices are starting to impact prices at the wholesale level and it’s just a matter of time before these higher prices are passed along to consumers. Weaker than expected retail sales and a new 13 year low in Consumer Sentiment suggests that higher energy prices are indeed weighing on the American consumer’s mind. How that will play out, particularly in the retail sector going into the holiday season is now a major focus on Wall Street.

With the word ‘inflation’ seemingly on everyone’s lips these days, we expect the Fed to continue on its tightening schedule. The Fed raised the target for overnight borrowing in September by 25bp to 3.75%, the 11th such hike since June of 2004. Another rate hike is expected in October and at least one additional 25bp bump is all but assured in November or December.

Rising U.S. interest rates and an expanding U.S. economy have been the driving forces behind overseas flows into U.S treasuries and the stock market respectively. These flows translate into demand for the U.S. dollar, which has kept the greenback generally well bid in September and October. While we would contend that the equities market is vulnerable at this stage, the interest rate differential picture should continue to favor the dollar through year end.

High energy prices and inflation fears are not exclusive to the U.S. Central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations are meeting in Beijing this month. A statement released on October 16th said, high oil prices “could increase inflationary pressures, slow down growth and cause instability in the global economy.” This should benefit the dollar as well because in times of global economic uncertainty, the dollar is still considered a “safe haven” currency. While we may see other countries begin to tighten their monetary policies, U.S. interest rates will remain significantly higher.

The definitive move above USD-JPY 115.00 bodes well for additional dollar gains against the yen into the 118/120 zone. On the other hand, the July lows in EURUSD at 1.1868 must be convincingly negated to trigger further dollar gains against the European currency. Such a move would shift focus to the 2004 lows at 1.1759/78 initially, but potential would be for a drop below 1.1500.

In times of inflationary pressures, the U.S. dollar tends to lose ground against the commodity currencies. Commodity currencies are the currencies of countries that derive the bulk of their export revenues from the sale of commodities. Prime examples of liquid commodity currencies are the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

The dollar hit a new 17 year low late in September against the Canadian dollar on the back of sharply higher oil and metals prices. While the dollar recovered from those lows, gains are considered corrective in nature and we look for the longer-term downtrend in USD-CAD to continue. Similarly, AUS-USD and NZD-USD are consolidating below important resistances with scope seen for additional short to medium term gains.

At some point, domestic inflation and the rise in the U.S. dollar will return focus to the U.S. trade deficit and balance of payments. As U.S. goods and services become more expensive, both domestic and overseas consumers will look elsewhere. That’s the point where the U.S. stock market truly becomes vulnerable. Downside risk in the stock market will result in a negative impact on flows into the U.S. and consequently the long-term downtrend in the dollar would likely start to re-exert itself.

Conventional wisdom in the financial services industry suggests that placing 5-10% of one’s portfolio in alternative investments, such as those offered by CFS Capital, is desirable to achieve the diversification necessary to protect against adverse moves in the more traditional asset classes.

Understanding What Influences Forex Prices

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Ed is a trend trader (uses technical analysis) and also relies on hunches from 20 years of experience. He definitely emphasizes his reliance on technical analysis. While reading this, I liken, the ‘hunches’ to knowing the effect fundamentals can have on a market although I could be mistaken, they could be purely from reading lots of charts so well. Here are is exact words “Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them ‘funny-mentals.’ However, if you catch on early, before others believe, then you might have valuable ‘surprise-a-mentals.’”

Ed says his priorities when trading are the long term trend, the current charts and picking a good spot to buy or sell, in that order.

Bruce says technical is awesome and very useful but by no means disregards fundamentals.

It’s important to note that technical analysis is a critical method of understanding the history of market movements and hence useful to identify trends. It doesn’t actually tell us where the currency is going but analyses historical data. We then need to use our own intelligence to see what the activity of trading says about future trades.

Technical Analysis can be compared to taking a patient’s temperature. To ignore it is ignorance and it can tell you whether a market is active, or cold and dormant.

It also picks up unusual behaviour. Anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. He also says “Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.”

It’s the fundamentals that will help to indicate whether a trading value will increase or decrease.

Everything that makes a country tick, in Forex terms. Consumer spending, government spending, employment cost index, government policy, political concerns and even an individual event can influence the market heavily.

In summary, the fundamentals will indicate the direction of a price but not exact prices. The chart analysis or technical analysis is better for that, so together you can really increase your chances of coming away with some pips.

The reason technical analysis is so emphasized is that many traders use charts to trade and at any given time, will be drawing the same lines of resistance and same lines of support. So if you can read the charts well, you have an awesome chance of predicting market movements. The best way to learn about the effect of fundamentals is to learn one piece of economic data at a time. This will help you make better-educated trades.

Forex Trading Is Driven By Five Top Economic Indicators

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Many factors affect Forex trading. It is critical to know and understand the various factors that cause the Forex to fluctuate from day to day. The foreign exchange market will change depending on the economic factors that play a role in the movement of currency.

Economic factors and indicators are released by the government or by private organizations that can look in depth at economic performances. These indicators can be used to analyse economic performances from any country. The economic reports measure a country’s economic health, in addition to government policies and current events.

For the most part, a reputable broker can look at economic indicators and know which trades will be best. Reports on these indicators are released at scheduled times and can tell if a certain country is experiencing improvement in the economy or if the country’s economy is on the decline. When the prices fluctuate, a great deal one way or the other, the price can be affected.

Current events and the state of the economy in any given nation is one of the top economic indicators used when analyzing the Forex. Factors such as unemployment numbers, housing statistics and the current state of a country’s government can all affect changes in the Forex. When a country is feeling optimisitic about the current state of affairs in their country, prices of the Forex will reflect this. When a nation experiences political unrest, large amounts of unemployed workers and inflation, the rate of the currency will be reflected. Sometimes, this indicator tends to be overlooked, but can serve as an important gauge in the fluctuations of the Forex.

The gross domestic product,or GDP,is another economic indicator used when looking at the foreign exchange market. The GDP is considered the widest and broadest measure of the economy in a country. The gross domestic product represents the total market value of all goods and services that are normally produced within any given country. This is usually measured in the time frame of a year, and not in weeks or months. Using a larger time period gives good statistics on the products and services that are produced in the country. This indicator is not used alone when forecasting the Forex. The GDP is considered a lagging indicator, meaning that is a measurable factor that changes after the economy has already began to follow a certain trend.

Retail sales reports are the third economic factor that is often used in analyzing the Forex. This is the total receipt of all retail stores in any country. Usually, this measurement is not every single retail sale, but is a sample of diverse retail stores throughout the country. This is considered a very reliable and important economic indicator because of the consumer spending patterns that are expected throughout the year. This factor is usually more important that lagging indicators and gives a clearer picture of the state of the economy in any country.

Another reliable economic indicator in the foreign exchange market is the industrial production report. This report shows the fluctuation in productions in industries such as factories, and utilities. The report looks at actual production in relation to what the production capacity potential is over a period of time. When a country is producing at a maximum capacity it positively affects the Forex and is considered ideal conditions for traders.

The consumer price index, or the CPI, is the last critical economic indicator in analyzing the Forex. The CPI is the measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods in 200 categories. This report can tell whether or not a country is making or losing money on their products and services. The exports that a country has are very important when looking at this indicator because the amount of exports can reflect a currency’s weakness or its strength.

The Forex is affected by many factors. These factors usually follow a certain trend so it is important to understand how each factor works in forecasting the Forex. Some are good indicators alone while others should be used together for accurate Forex predications.

Forecasting Forex Trading

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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What is Forex or Foreign Exchange: It is the largest financial market in the world, with a volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another.

What about Forecasting: Predicting current and future market trends using existing data and facts. Analysts rely on technical and fundamental statistics to predict the directions of the economy, stock market and individual securities.

For those who trade using the Forex, or foreign currency exchange, knowing how to forecast the Forex can make the difference between trading successfully and losing money. When you begin learning about Forex trading, it is vital that you understand how to forecast the Forex trading market.

There are a few methods that are used when forecasting the Forex. Each system is used to understand how the Forex works and how the fluctuations in the market can affect traders and currency rates. The two methods that are most often used are called technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Both methods differ in their own ways, but each one can help the Forex trader understand how the rates are affecting the currency trade. Most of the time, experienced traders and brokers know each method and use a mixture of the two to trade on the Forex.

One method used in forecasting foreign currency exchange is called technical analysis. This method uses predictions by looking at trends in charts and graphs from past Forex market happenings. This system is based on solid events that have actually taken place in the Forex in the past. Many experience Forex traders and brokers rely on this system because it follows actual trends and can be quite reliable.

When looking at the technical analysis in the Forex, there are three basic principles that are used to make projections. These principles are based on the market action in relation to current events, trends in price movements and past Forex history. When the market action is looked at, everything from supply and demand, current politics and the current state of the market are taken into consideration. It is usually agreed that the actual price of the Forex is a direct reflection of current events.

The trends in price movement are another factor when using technical analysis. This means that there are patterns in the market behavior that have been known to be a contributing factor in the Forex. These patterns are usually repeating over time and can often be a consistent factor when forecasting the Forex market. Another factor that is taken into consideration when forecasting the Forex is history. There are definite patterns in the market and these are usually reliable factors. There are several charts that are taken into consideration when forecasting the Forex market using technical analysis. The five categories that are look at include indicators, number theory, waves, gaps and trends.

Most of these can be quite complicated for those who are inexperienced using the Forex. Most professional Forex brokers understand these charts and have the ability to offer their clients well-informed advice about Forex trading.

Another way that experienced brokers and traders in the Forex use to forecast the trends is called fundamental analysis. This method is used to forecast the future of price movements based on events that have not taken place yet. This can range from political changes, environmental factors and even natural disasters. Important factors and statistics are used to predict how it will affect supply and demand and the rates of the Forex. Most of the time, this method is not a reliable factor on its own, but is used in conjunction with technical analysis to form opinion about the changes in the Forex market.

For those interesting in being involved with Forex trading, a basic understanding of how the system works is essential. Understanding both forecasting systems and how they can predict the market trends will help Forex traders be successful with their trading. Most experienced traders and brokers involved with the Forex use a system of both technical and fundamental information when making decisions about the Forex market. When used together, they can provide the trader with invaluable information about where the currency trends are headed.

Always leave the forecasting to the pros unless you are playing the Forex as a hobby and don’t have a lot of money invested…Or like most people you will learn the hard way.

Do Interest Rates Drive The Foreign Exchange Markets?

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  • Date posted: December 6th, 2011
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Interest Rates defined: Interest rates are LIBOR-based for currencies of disbursement plus a spread which is dependent on the complexity of the transaction and the risk profile of the applicant.

The Forex, or foreign currency exchange, is all about money. Money from all over the world is bought, sold and traded. On the Forex, anyone can buy and sell currency and with possibly come out ahead in the end. When dealing with the foreign currency exchange, it is possible to buy the currency of one country, sell it and make a profit. For example, a broker might buy a Japanese yen when the yen to dollar ratio increases, then sell the yens and buy back American dollars for a profit.

The foreign exchange market, sometimes known as the Forex market, is one that is affected by several things. The market itself is becoming one of the most popular forms of trading today. It once was reserved for the richest of the rich, however today with lower minimums; this is a market that draws people from all financial levels. The attractive thing about this market is both its leverage and it liquidity. Many people with a grand background in the Forex system can take very little money and turn it into a lot using the foreign exchange market. However, when you have expertise in the foreign exchange market, you must also be aware of things that affect it. Being aware of these things is part of making logical and rational decisions of trading.

Interest rates are something that drives the foreign exchange market. While currency prices are what the market is all about, interest rates have a direct affect on those prices. Therefore, to be able to understand the current foreign exchange market, one must understand the current conditions of each individual interest rate. While economic and political conditions are also among the things that greatly affect the Forex, there is nothing that affects it more than interest rates. Something to remember is that money often follows interest rates. When the interest rates raise, investors will want to capitalize high returns and you will see money flowing into the country. When one country’s interest rates rise, their currency is seen as being stronger than other currencies. This happens because investors seek more of that currency to profit more. Otherwise, it is seen as a good thing when interest rates rise and a bad thing when they fall.

Government participation in the Forex is not an uncommon action. Sometimes governments will flood the foreign exchange market with their own domestic currency. This action may seem foolish to someone who knows nothing about the foreign exchange market, however to those who know it well, it makes perfect sense. When governments flood the Forex with their own domestic currency, they are attempting to lower the price. When they buy their own domestic currency, they are attempting to raise the price. One might know this strategy as Central Bank intervention. Governments do this to help their overall economy. This is a type of action that keeps the foreign exchange market strong and steady. When you have extremely large players making appearances to keep everything as fair as possible, you create an attractive market.

While interest rates can drive the market for a short time, the nature of the foreign exchange market makes it difficult for them to drive it for a long period of time. The design of the market, with it being large in size and volume, restricts interest rates from having complete control over the system. Many times however, experts try to figure out when interest rates will rise or fall. The most common thing they do in order to keep up with rates is to pay attention to economic inflation indicators. Sometimes investors and experts will also listen to speeches from politicians and other influential people. They can pick apart clues in order to make a guess before the announcements are made. Most of the time, there is a little advance notice before interest rates move.

As you can see, the influences of interest rates on the foreign exchange market are strong. They can help determine which countries’ currencies are the strongest. This of course is relative to all other currencies in the market at the time. When you think about the rise and fall of interest rates, you can remember that when interest rates fall, it is typically a good thing for investors and for domestic currency. When rates fall, it is not such a great thing. When rates stay low for an extended period of time, the market may seem a little dull, however the great thing about the foreign exchange market is that when government gets involved, which it usually does at these down times, there is hope for improvement. So, if you are beginning to learn about the foreign exchange market, don’t forget to pay attention to the rise and fall of interest rates around you in order to make the best investment decisions possible.

What About The Oil Market Does It Affect Forex Trading

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  • Date posted: December 6th, 2011
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What is Forex or Foreign Exchange: It is the largest financial market in the world, with a volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another.

What about Forecasting: Predicting current and future market trends using existing data and facts. Analysts rely on technical and fundamental statistics to predict the directions of the economy, stock market and individual securities.

Why should you worry about the price of oil if you’re not buying and selling oil? If you’re trading currencies, there’s one very good reason. Many of the most important currency trading pairs rise and fall on the price of a barrel of oil. The price of oil has been a leading indicator of the world economy for decades, and experts predict that that won’t be changing any time soon. The connection between the price of oil and the economy of many countries is based on a couple of simple facts:

— Countries with healthy supplies of crude oil benefit economy-wise from higher oil prices.

— Countries who depend on imports for their energy needs benefit from lower oil prices and lose when oil prices rise.

— When the economy of a country is strong, its currency is also strong in the forex market.

— When the economy in a country takes a downturn, its currency loses value in the currency exchange rate.

Experts who watch the oil market are split on which way oil prices are headed, and just how far. A little over a year ago, most pundits agreed that $40 a barrel was the upper limit for a barrel of crude oil. At the year’s beginning, oil had already broken that point, and was selling at $42.50 a barrel. The vagaries of the weather, world politics and actual capacity to meet demands have fueled one of the most volatile pricing years in recent memory. At one point, the price of crude broke $70 a barrel, an increase of 65% over the beginning of the year. And while prices dropped for a short period, at the end of the year, they were still 45% higher than at the beginning of the year. Since the turn of the year, prices have begun their climb again, and the majority of traders believe that we won’t see a reversal of that trend in the near future. The conservative predict a price of $80 per barrel. The more aggressive are calling it at $100.

The fluctuating oil prices of the past year — 2005 — are a good example of what can happen when factors affect the price and supply of oil. Remember from basic economy courses that higher oil prices act to put the brakes on consumer spending. This will be true as long as the major source of oil for industrialized countries is petroleum based. The price of all goods produced hinges on the price of a barrel of oil. If the oil prices rise, so do production and supply prices for most consumer goods. In addition, the expenses of individual consumers rise as they pay more to fuel their automobiles and heat their homes. The net result is a downward swing in the economy of the country until it hits a rallying point that starts it back on an upward trend.

What will this mean for the currency trading market?

In the currency market, exchange rates are often predicated on the health of a country’s economy. If the economy is robust and growing, the exchange rates for their currency reflect that in higher value. If the economy is faltering, the exchange rate for their currency against most other currencies also stumbles. Knowing that, the following makes sense:

— The currency of countries that produce and export oil will rise in value.

— The currency of countries that import most of their oil and depend on it for their exports will drop in relative value.

— The most profitable trades will involve a country that exports oil vs. a country that depends on oil.

Based on those three points, the experts are keeping their eye on the CADJPY pairing for the most profitable trades, and here’s why.

Canada has been climbing on the list of the world’s oil producers for years, and is currently the ninth largest exporter of oil worldwide. Since the year 2000, Canada has been the largest supplier of oil to the U.S., and has been getting considerable attention from the Chinese market. It’s predicted that by 2010, China’s import needs for oil will double, and match that of the U.S. by 2030. Currently, Canada is positioned to be the largest exporter of oil to China. This puts Canada’s dollar in an excellent position from a trading perspective.

Japan, on the other hand, imports 99% of its oil. Their reliance on oil imports makes their economy especially sensitive to oil price fluctuations. If oil prices continue to rise, the price of Japanese exports will be forced to rise as well, weakening their position in the world market. Over the past year, there has been a close correlation with rises in oil prices and drops in the value of the yen.

If economy and history are to be heeded, the oil prices can’t continue to rise indefinitely. Eventually, consumers will bite the bullet and start cutting their demand for oil and gas. When that happens, the price of oil will either stabilize, or start heading back down toward the $40 a gallon that experts predicted it would never hit.

As you can see many factors have a major influence in the Forex game. Please leave the speculating to the experts unless you trade on the forex as a hobby and don’t have a lot of money invested.

World Events and Wise Forex Trading

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  • Date posted: December 6th, 2011
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Forex trading has the great potential of becoming a profitable and fulfilling career that will let you have a lifestyle that few other lucrative activities in the world can offer to people from many roads in life and without asking any of those men and women for a diploma or some special certification.

But Forex trading is not easy; it may be simple to enter and place your first trade but becoming a profitable trader is a different thing. You will need to acquire the right knowledge and techniques in order to understand and know when to enter or leave a trade always fulfilling the main objective every trader must have; making money.

There are two kinds of analysis you can perform on the Forex markets. They are known as technical analysis and fundamental analysis. It is common that traders tend to divide themselves into “technical” and “fundamentalists”. Each group devoting themselves to the main tools each kind of analysis gives them.

Technical forex traders base their trading on the analysis of the charts and the number of indicators derived from the plots of price oscillations and patterns. Meanwhile Fundamentalists traders base their trading mostly on the fundamental numbers and economical indicators of countries economies. Though, even if divided, both tendencies tend to complement each other to some degree.

In this article I will place myself on the “fundamentalists” side and focus on one of the situations every forex trader must be aware of and don’t let the events involved affect his trading efforts.

This risky situation is that when unprecedented chaotic world events start to develop as the trading day goes on. The power of the media (tv, internet, printed) can magnify and sometimes it may even distort the events taking place and impacting the trading journey in a significant manner. The result of this magnification and rapid diffusion of the news about the series of unfavorable events taking place is an increased atmosphere of fear, confusion and uncertainty in the trading world. And fearful traders are not prone to make the best trading choices because they have given themselves to panic and emotional reactions instead of reasoned and intelligent decisions.

If you need to have more specific examples of these kind of events you can search a bit inside your memories and consider the impact of just a few types of unfavorable chaotic world events as the political upheavals or corporate scandals of companies as; Enron, WorldCom, or of people as the case of Martha Stewart trial, etc. There is also the example of the terrorist attacks on Sep 11 in New York, March 11 in Spain, etc. Also natural disasters: tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, freezes, droughts, hurricanes along with wars can cause great disruption in a trading journey.

In short, every forex trader should be totally sure that his method of trading has built-in safe guards (stops, limit orders) to prevent a major financial loss from his trading account in case any of the unfavorable events I mentioned above ever takes place. And being realistic, many of those events will surely happen in the future.

Forex Capital Markets And Foreign Exchange Transactions

  • Post author: Admin
  • Date posted: December 6th, 2011
  • No Comments

Forex Capital Markets are foreign exchange markets where the currencies are been bought and sold continuously for profits. The capital markets of forex are present globally and transactions are non-stop in this forex cash market. Whether its Sydney or Tokyo, one would find aggressive forex dealers and brokers peering into their computer screens and on the telephone for minor changes that might affect this currency trade.

The forex trade is carried out for profits that can be gained by buying and selling of the currencies. Currencies are always bought and sold in pairs. Let us take an example to clarify the forex deal

A trader trades in Euros/ Us Dollars. (All figures are samples only) He purchases 10,000 Euros on Jan 1 when the EUR/USD rate is .9600. Then he sells these Euros at the market rate of 1.1800. On August 1. Therefore he gets 11,800 USD. Thereby making a cool forex transaction profit of USD 2200.

Since all currencies are bought and sold in pairs, one needs to decide the pair of currency that you would like to do your currency transactions in. In this example EUR is the base currency and the USD is called the quote or the counter currency. If you have bought Euros (simultaneously selling dollars), then you have based your decision on the fact that Euros may appreciate in the future. Therefore by selling Euros back into dollars you would be getting more dollars and thus making a profit.

If your assumption is that the US market is going to appreciate, then you would placing a SELL Euro/USD. Therefore you will sell Euros while (simultaneously buying USD). This USD may be sold at a later stage to book a profit.

Operating in the financial and forex trade, its important to understand that there are many factors, which affect the forex dealing. The business market conditions, the political scenario, threat of climatic disasters or impending farm output increase. All these factors play a crucial role in the forex markets.

Forex dealers trade on forex trading platform or a session. These are sophisticated software’s, which provide the forex dealers with real time news and analysis on the currencies that they are dealing in. On this they execute buy and sell orders and well as stop order. Of course these are also linked to the forex margin account. Thus it gives the forex dealers ample leeway to make transactions with a small investment. The forex trade is competitive market where more credit worthy that the institution or the dealer, the better their source of information and quality of data is. Therefore this helps them to make better deals in the currency transactions and make better profits.

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