Scalping The Forex Market For Profits Every Day

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Scalping the forex market is something that all new traders aspire to do. It is however not easy and requires allot of concentration and discipline.

Once you decide on a set you are going to use you will need to spend a few months religiously for a couple of hours a day trading on demo until you get to know your setup and a feel for scalping it.

A popular way to scalp the forex on M1 charts is to use hull moving averages. Plot the following WMA’s (Weighted Moving Averages) on your chart: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200, 210, 220, 240. Now set price to a line on Average or, if you don’t have that, set it to line on Close. Set all the WMA’s to one color that is different to price.

This will create a pretty chart. Using these WMA’s you can easily see the strength of a trend, you will notice that price tends to retrace back and forth from the moving averages.

What we are looking for is resistance in a up trend or support in a down trend in the form of double top or something similar. Once you find this area wait for a convincing break of it following the trend and then enter to scalp part of the move.

This method takes practice, don’t expect to be able to pull it off straight away, open a demo account with a broker that offers spreads of a pip or less and trade every day at the same time for at least two months. I guarantee you will see great improvements as you become familiar with the setup and the flow of the market.

100% Hedging Strategies

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Hedging is defined as holding two or more positions at the same time, where the purpose is to offset the losses in the first position by the gains received from the other position.

Usual hedging is to open a position for a currency A, then opening a reverse for this position on the same currency A. This type of hedging protects the trader from getting a margin call, as the second position will gain if the first loses, and vice versa.

However, traders developed more hedging techniques in order to try to benefit form hedging and make profits instead of just to offset losses.

In this page, we will discuss, some of the hedging techniques.

1. 100% Hedging.

This technique is the safest ever, and the most profitable of all hedging techniques while keeping minimal risks. This technique uses the arbitrage of interest rates (roll over rates) between brokers. In this type of hedging you will need to use two brokers. One broker which pays or charges interest at end of day, and the other should not charge or pay interest. However, in such cases the trader should try to maximize your profits, or in other words to benefit the utmost of this type of hedging.

The main idea about this type of hedging is to open a position of currency X at a broker which will pay you a high interest for every night the position is carried, and to open a reverse of that position for the same currency X with the broker that does not charge interest for carrying the trade. This way you will gain the interest or rollover that is credited to your account.

However there are many factors that you should take into consideration.

a. The currency to use. The best pair to use is the GBPJPY, because at the time of writing this article, the interest credited to your account will be 24 usd for every 1 regular long lot you have. However you should check with your broker because each broker credits a different amount. The range can be from $10 to $26.

b. The interest free broker. This is the hardest part. Before you open your account with such a broker, you should check the following: i. Does the broker allow opening the position for an unlimited time? ii. Does the broker charge commissions?

Some brokers charge $5 flat every night for each lot held, this is a good thing, although it seems not. Because, when the broker charges you money for keeping your position, the your broker will likely let you hold your position indefinitely.

c. Equity of your account. Hedging requires lots of money. For example, if you want to use the GBPJPY, you will need 20,000USD in each account. This is very necessary because the max monthly range for GBPJPY in the last few years was 2000 pips. You do not want one of your accounts to get a margin call. Do not forget that when you open your 2 positions at the 2 brokers, you will pay the spread, which is around 16 pips together. If you are using 1 regular lot, then this is around 145 usd. So you will enter the trades, losing 145 usd. So you will need the first 6 days just to cover the spread cost. Thus if you get a margin call again, you will need to close your other position, and then transfer money to your other account, and then re-open the positions. Every time this happens, you will lose 145 usd!

It is very important not to get a margin call. This can be maintained by a large equity, or a fast efficient way to transfer money between brokers.

d. Money management. One of the best ways to manage such an account is to monthly withdraw profits and balancing your positions. This can be done by withdrawing the excess from one account, take out the profits, and depositing the excess into the losing account to balance them. However, this can be costly. You should also check with your broker if he allows withdrawals while your position is still open. One efficient way of doing this is using the brokerage service withdrawals which is provided by third party companies.

Automated Trading Systems for Financial Markets and Recommendations for Their Usage

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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1. Introductions

Today, using information and trading platforms has become a de facto requirement for successful trading in the financial markets. Their advantages as compared to conventional trading schemes include, for example, an unprecedented speed of processing and delivery of information to end users, the level of integration with data providers, and a wide array of built-in technical analysis instruments.

At the same time, an investor opening an account with a brokerage firm simply cannot simultaneously manage the real-time analysis and trade in more than 4-6 financial instruments in several markets 24 hours 7 days a week. This brings about the need to employ automatic trading systems in the form of runtime environment with client and server parts and the programs to control these systems (scripts).

2. Comparative Analysis of the Problem Area

Various software components embrace the entire target sector of the market-from analytics and forecasting to complex trade and administration. The components of a trading platform provide its clients-brokers, dealers, traders, financial analysts and advisors-just the service they need at the very moment they need it, from immediate round-the-clock access to information of concern by means of mobile devices, to multi-move trading operations in the major client terminal.

The software market offers a great many of information and trading platforms that differ, first of all, in the functionality of the client and server parts, and the list of services provided by the financial company once an account has been opened. However, only a relatively small number of software solutions include the components that automate trading.

2.1. MetaTrader4-based Solutions

One of the world’s most widely used trade platform products is apparently MetaTrader4, developed by MetaQuotes Software Corporat?on for Forex market trading. The platform includes an integrated development environment (IDE) MetaEd?tor, intended for writing scripts in a programming language called MetaQuotes Language, or MQL4 for short. The language’s syntax is based on the classic C language syntax, and the flow logic has not been significantly changed since the previous version of the platform that used MQL II as the programming language. The new automated trade framework is, undoubtedly, an evolution of the previous one. Both languages feature good functionality, with an optimum set of built-in trading and utility functions which is quite sufficient to implement the basic operations, and a facility to define custom functions to help implement non-standard ideas.

From the programming point of view, MQL4 is much more convenient that its predecessor; this language is more oriented at professional programmers, while MQL II, in my opinion, will rather suit financial experts wishing to build trading programs (or trading advisors, in the MetaQuotes terminology) of their own.

2.2. Omega Research-based Solutions

In the New World, the vast majority of companies use the Omega Research platform developed by TradeStation Securities, Inc. This platform has long ago proven its worth at the worldwide market, and to date experts consider it to be the best system for technical analysis. The provided IDE called Omega Research PowerEditor is intended to create control programs in EasyLanguage (EL).

The language’s major advantage that strikes the eye is the easiness (hence is the name) of placing opening and closing orders. The corresponding program instructions can be written such as if we were formulating an order to our broker in the plain human language. In MQL4, for example, placing an order to open a position would involve specifying about a dozen of various parameters. In EasyLanguage, the same can be expressed in a short statement using a few words. Working with technical indicators is about that simple, too. But don’t fall under an illusion: when creating these simple commands, language developers sacrificed the functionality and limited the possible ways of using a particular function, therefore effectively depriving the IDE users of the opportunity to accurately implement their own algorithms.

TradeStation decided not to create extensive libraries of built-in trading and utility functions but to limit to only an essential set. As the platform advanced, the number of functions written by both in-house and third-party developers grew, and TradeStation simply included them as user-defined functions into the repository of its scripts. As a result, the functionality offered to users is not in the least scarcer than that of MetaQuotes product.

PowerEditor provides a built-in dictionary that lets user search and get help on the available functions. Another handy tool worth mentioning is the strategy builder. Using the strategy builder, the user can easily create a basic algorithm for his or her trading program, and then modify and adjust it as necessary.

EasyLanguage is an old-timer and pioneer in the field of creating automated trading systems for the stock market. It was the basis for the development of MQL II. EasyLanguage will be a good choice for programmers, but still a better one for financial experts more oriented at analyzing the market than trading.

2.3. ProTrader-based Solutions

Professional financial experts can choose the ProTrader2 or ProTraderFX platform as their working tool, depending on the type of the financial market-stock or Forex, respectively. The two platforms are developed and supported by PFSoft LLC. While featuring the specially developed ProTrader Language (PTL), the provided IDE named PTL Builder offers also the opportunity to create scripts in MQLII, MQL4 and EasyLanguage. For this, the text of the program is translated to a language-independent code. Therefore, at runtime it does not matter in which language the script was written. This technology does not only enable creating new scripts, but makes it possible to use freely the entire accumulated collection of scripts that many experienced traders possess.

The main idea put into the new scripting language was to ensure maximum reliability and predictability of the scripts being run. The PTL language is built so as to minimize the possibility of making a mistake in the text of a user’s script-the potentially dangerous points will be detected even before the script is tested or launched.

Regardless of the programming language chosen, the platform works with verified managed code while running the script. This Microsoft-developed technology enables proper handling of errors that cannot be detected before the script is run. This means the program will not fail and will not perform any unwanted operations that might be due to critical errors or damage caused by another program, for which the account holder would eventually have to pay.

The PTL Builder IDE will serve well both financial experts and programmers thanks to its support of different programming languages and provided tools such as tester and debugger.

2.4. Solution Comparison

The above IDEs have their specific feature sets. The table below provides a summary comparison of the capabilities offered by each.

3. Approaches for Creating Automated Trading Systems and Recommendations for Using Them

It hardly needs mentioning that choosing an information and trading platform should be taken with all seriousness. For those who plan to use an automated trading system in their business, below are some points I would recommend considering, based on my personal experience.

3.1. Choosing a Working Environment

First of all, define the type of tasks the automated trading system is to perform. These could be:

Actual trading: opening and closing positions in selected instrument(s).

Secondary support-type functions. These could include placing protective orders, creating and sending out reports of notifications.

Analyzing the market with different technical analysis tools using your own algorithm.

Now, after you have studied user comments on the Internet and perhaps consulted your broker, proceed to getting the feel of the products offered. I strongly encourage you not to just have a cursory look, but to test the system for a day of two, thankfully, most of the large companies will let you sign up for a demo account for testing. Pay attention to both the convenience of the IDE and the tools that go with it, and to reliability and security of the control programs created with the IDE.

3.2. Creating a Control Program

If you are planning to create your own scripts, take the time to study the documentation for the programming language and the IDE. Naturally, for an automated trading system to be expertly organized, the scripts should be written by qualified professionals in the field of programming and finance. In case you wish to use one of the classic programs, remember that most of them are of trial, demonstration nature. They are good for testing the automated trading system or to be used as a basis for your own programs, but as self-sustaining, ready-to-use solutions they are of little avail.

If you decide to use programs written by third-party developers, keep in mind that good solutions will have to be paid for. The cost of one innovative strategy varies between $300 and $500, but the price for fine-tuned strategies that use advanced mathematical and economic techniques and especially for winners and runners-up of automated trading championships may exceed $1,000.

3.3. Testing Scripts

When using an automated trading system, always test your scripts. The procedure can be as follows:

1. Test the program in a script tester (if such facility is available in your IDE) several times, varying the chart period, the instrument being traded, and the program settings. Try to model the conditions close to the actual state of the market.

2. Test the script in a demo account (if such an opportunity is available). At this stage, it is important to let the program run for a sufficiently long time (it is defined by the period of the chart). Do not stop the test if the program has at once produced a big gain or a big loss. The usefulness of the script can only be estimated after it has worked for a significant amount of time.

3. Run the script in the live account. At this stage, it is not advisable to interfere with the script-for example, close the positions it has opened or modify their settings-or you can upset the internal logic of the program.

3.4. How Not to Fall Prey to Tricks When Choosing a Script

Remember that there are no absolutely perfect advisers. So, do not let them sell you the Brooklyn Bridge-if you had a system that brings in fabulous profits, would you sell it? There is only one advice-a rigorous comprehensive testing will help you get the right impression about the script offered.

Usually, script vendors describe their products with the results of their own testing. In most cases, however, such results are very slanted. Remember that testing should always be performed on several histories, or you can simply adjust to one history fragment and show sky-high results. Based on the NFL theorem, it is fair to say that it is impossible to create a script that would the best of all those existing, in all instruments.

Some professional programmers use sophisticated mathematical tools to endow their programs with artificial intelligence-neural networks, forecasting and evolutionary algorithms are no longer surprising. I would not recommend overestimating such systems-complex forecasting algorithms are very sensitive to errors and parameter settings, while simple schemes are not of much help to the advisor when it comes to generating trade signals, and can only be used to raise the price of the script.

4. Conclusion

In this article, I neither discuss any programming rules for creating the advisors, nor the specifics of writing scripts in a particular language. On these subjects, there are whole books written as well as a number of articles. My aim was to present several points which I think to be quite important but which have not been sufficiently covered in existing publications.

So, are automated trading systems your ally or enemy? When used carefully and without hasty judgments, an automated trading system can facilitate the financial expert’s work and bring in certain profits. But when used incorrectly, incompletely tested, or having settings changed frequently, the automated trading system can lose the money you entrust to it.

Remember that an automated trading system is not going to do your job for you without any effort on your part. Use it to solve your existing problems and not add new ones.

5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM, Exponential Moving Averages Full Potential

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Among one of the important concepts a new forex trader should know is what a Moving Average means, how it’s calculated and what its use as a trading indicator is.

Moving Average is defined as a technical indicator that shows the average value of a particular currency pair over a previously determined amount of time. This means, for example, that prices are averaged over 20 or 50 days, or 10 and 50 min depending on the time frame you are using at the moment of your trading activity.

As an averaged quantity, MA’s can bee seen as a smoothed representation of the current market activity and an indicator of the major trend influencing the market behavior.

The basic mechanics of how Moving Averages can tell you where the forex market is moving (up or down), at the moment of your analysis is by considering two different time frame Moving Averages and plotting them on the forex chart. It is very important that one of these MA is over a shorter time period than the other one; let’s say one will be over a 15 days period and the other over a 50 days period. Most trading station software available by a number of brokers will let you do this plotting and much more.

Recently there has been the realese of a new forex trading system called “The 5 EMAs FOREX SYSTEM”. This system will allow you to identify both entry and exit points with incredible accuracy. He even claims you can convert $1000 into $1000 000 in just 24 months. He may be exaggerating a bit on this, but his plan of action and use of moving averages is quite outstanding and accurate.

Depending upon the exit strategy selected, the system generates monthly returns of between 30% and 55%. Which is more tha enough to make a living trading the forex markets with the 5 EMAs Forex System.

Forex Forecasts – You Never Know What You Will Benefit From

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Possible risks and profits to be made can always be predicted if traders would only have more accurate Forex forecast to base their trade and decisions upon. Forex forecasts are only one way of keeping up with the volatile Forex market. Success will depend the most in knowing what and who will affect the rate changes.

The Forex market has already been through a lot of ups and downs that even fortune tellers would have difficulty guessing what will be its next movement. Making a Forex forecast can be helpful but can also be too risky. Besides, doing it is not that easy also.

In Forex forecasts, nothing specific is given. The traders are not made to hope high and expect more. If you have seen or heard a Forex forecast, be sure to check on some projected rate fluctuations whenever and wherever possible so you would have an idea it the Forex forecast shows a likely possibility to be true or not.

Staying in touch and up-to-date with the latest news and happenings around the globe and information about the Forex currency can help traders determine when is the best time to buy, sell and stay away from a particular market. All these things are important in the performance of your trade. Take note of some Forex forecasts if only to serve as guide whenever you are in a situation that you find hard to make a decision upon.

How can one benefit from Forex forecasts?

There are some companies that are offering Forex forecast information as a subscription that traders can avail of. For those who do not have enough patience and browse for information in the internet, this Forex forecast information would be their alternative.

No one said that there is a 100% accuracy in these Forex forecasts. And no one told traders that they should also believe them 100%. If you want to have more degree of accuracy in the Forex forecast, you could always find one with the most accurate percentage rate.

You could look for something or someone that offers free information or a trail period for you to test the degree of their ability to give accurate forecast about the Forex market. There are also some sites that send out Forex forecast to emails that you may want to try out just so you will choice to choose from if you decide to avail the services of some of them.

Relying only on one Forex forecast is not the thing to do. You should at least have some more choices in the process of making an investment decision. Try to get more Forex forecast from sources that are rampant online and offline so you would not stick to just one.

The thing to remember is that your investments are your future and you have already worked too hard to just let it all down the drain. Do not put the future of your Forex trade into the hands of only person. Try to get several Forex forecast and choose the best one that you think has great ounces of accuracy up their sleeves.

Before putting the future of your investments into the hands of those offering Forex forecasts, make it a point to check out the latest that is happening in the Forex trading and see if the trend is likely to go with what the predictions are telling about.

If you think more about it, people doing Forex forecasts would not be out there giving bad forecasts because their reputation is the one at stake there. They surely would not want to ruin the image they have by giving false predictions about things that they know people will listen to, would they?

Like they say, traders should not believe all that is written in Forex forecasts. Some but not all. There are still decisions to be made that will be based upon the trader itself and no amount or accuracy of Forex forecasts can make that decision for them.

Just to be on the right side of things, always make sure and do your own research that will back up the Forex forecast you actually think is going to work. You never know what it will lead to…

An Overview Of Forex Investing Strategies

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Forex trading refers to an international, 24/7, over the counter, exchange market where currencies of different nations are bought and sold. Trading is always done in pairs assuming the price of currency bought to go up and that sold to fall down. It is the largest liquid financial market making it impossible for any single investor to influence the prices of currencies.

There are two kinds of Forex investing strategies:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Technical analysis is mostly undertaken by small and medium size investors. A technical analysis considers factors that are actually affecting the market rather than factors that can affect it. Thus the price quoted reflects all the factors that have influenced it. Only market generated facts and figures are taken into account and factors like fear, hope, expectations or other changes are not considered. Thus the analysis is generally based on these suppositions:

* Price reflects all actual market movements. That means price includes everything known to the market like supply and demand of foreign exchange, political factors, trade agreements etc. It is not concerned with what resulted in change rather deals with actual changes. It works on the assumption that price can take only one of the three directions:

Upward, downward and sideward

* It rest on those market patterns that have been identified as significant. That means those factors which are repetitive in nature or will produce desired results.

* History always repeats itself as human psychology changes very slowly with time. That is market movements are predictable.

VARIOUS TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE:

1. RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX:

It takes into account the ratio of upward and downward movements in index and expresses it in the range of zero to hundred.

2.CHARTS:

Charts include various hills, slopes, curves that develop on a chart over a time and reflect some major and minor changes in pattern. Some of the chart formations include:

* TRIANGLE * RECTANGLE * HEAD AND SHOULDERS * DOUBLE TOP AND BOTTOM * SAUCERS * V

3.GAPS:

A gap represents area on a bar chart where no trading took place.

* UPGAP: it is formed when the lowest price on a particular day is more than the highest price of previous day.

* DOWNGAP: it is formed when highest price of a certain day is less than the lowest price on previous day.

NUMBERS:

Various number theories are used in technical analysis like:

* Fibonacci theory * GANN

STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR:

This indicates the overbought or/and undersold condition. It uses a scale of zero to hundred percent.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

It is the one where current economic, political, financial situation of the country of currency is studied. A country’s economical and political condition depends upon many factors like the interest rate, unemployment level, exports and imports, per capita income, percentage of population living above and below the poverty line, inflation, trade relations with other countries, tax policies etc.

A fundamental analyst studies and evaluates all these factors before coming to any decision. Thus it helps in long tem decision making and making profits in short term by extra ordinary developments.

Some of the indicators that help in fundamental analysis include:

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT:

It reflects total market value of all the goods and services produced in a country during a given year.

2. RETAIL SALES:

This reflects total receipts by all the retail stores in a country.

3. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX:

It reflects change in prices of consumer goods.

4. BUSINESS CYCLE:

It reflects various phases through which a business passes. These phases include:

* EXPANSION * PEAK * RECESSION * DEPRESSION

5. MONETRY POLICY:

It controls the supply of money in an economy.

Trading successfully needs knowledge, time and understanding of a market. You cannot earn continuously in a Forex market due to its volatile nature. Thus as a trader you should try to consider both technical and fundamental strategies of forex trading and make decision based on market expectations and trends. Try trading with money that you can afford to loose without any regrets. Trade with logic and if you are not sure quit and take rest for some time.

Moving The Forex Market With Trading And Intervention Techniques

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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Trading and intervention techniques can offer traders benefits When trading on the foreign currency exchange market, or the Forex. Traders look to intervention as a means of seeing where the Forex is heading, indicating that some currencies should be higher or lower depending on what is going on in that country.

Intervention of the Forex is not unusual. When there is a big tragedy or large debt in a country, the value of that nation’s currency will drop. There was a time when the budget deficit of the United States caused the value of the dollar to decline very rapidly in relation to the Japanese yen. This caused the Japanese yen to rise very quickly. When this happens, brokers and Forex traders can forecast, or speculate that an intervention is likely. Intervention makes the value of a currency either rise or fall depending on how the government wants it to move, even if it is for the short term.

Experienced brokers and Forex traders understand when an intervention is likely, thus creating an opportunity for the trader to profit by acting quickly. Using the intervention technique as a means of trading on the Forex necessitates that a trader must be up to date on current events from around the world and must be able to act upon these events and trends very quickly. It can be very risky to trade on intervention trends. The potential is there for the trader to lose a large amount of capital in a very short amount of time.

It is necessary to understand economics from around the world In order to completely understand the foreign exchange market and the way currency moves. The Forex solely revolves around currency and its value in relation to each other. The value of the currency plays a major role in both domestic and global economics.

The intervention technique is also directly related to the value of the currency and to the central banks. Currency obtains the value by supply and demand and by the government, or the central bank. When a currency is subjected to being valued it is called floating. When a government sets the rates of the currency, it is called fixing. This means that a country’s currency is compared against another major currency, usually the US dollar.

Intervention in the Forex usually happens during times of economic instability. As currencies are always traded in pairs, a large and significant movement of the rates in one direction or the other will directly impact the other currency. Any time a nation experiences instability due to inflation, speculation, disasters or growing national debt, the other country will feel the affects as well. The results of this are not always felt immediately, but over a long period of time. This time lapse allows the government or central banks to act accordingly and allows them time to intervene if necessary.

When looking at charts of the way the foreign currency market performs, interventions are usually noticeable on graphs and charts. The intervention may not be made public, but an experience trader can look at these graphs over a period of time and tell when a government has chosen to intervene with the currency rates.

Knowing when an intervention is going to occur is not easy and it is even more difficult for the untrained trader to know when an intervention is going to happen. For those who have experience trading on the Forex, predicting an intervention can be as easy as looking at key indicators. Typically, interventions occur when the same price levels occur as previous with interventions. This is not always the case as some central banks may choose not to intervene, but on the whole it is a good indicator. Another indicator of when the Forex might undergo intervention is the verbal clue. A government might talk about intervening, and yet the intervention may not happen for a long time. Other times, interventions will happen with no warning.

Trading on the Forex involves mking well informed decisions that will ultimatley benefit you. If you are inexperienced in trading on the foreign currency exchange look for a good broker who is backed by a well-known financial institution.

Profitable Forex Strategies and Techniques

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  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
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This article is mostly for people that already know what the Forex market is and at least know the basic concepts. If you have no clue about what this market is or you have never heard about it, I will give you a very brief explanation bellow.

Forex is the acronym for Foreign Exchange Market. This is the biggest and most liquid market of the entire world today. One to three trillion dollars exchange hands at Forex every day. That’s a huge amount of money. No stock market exchange of any country come close to this.

This market is huge. It is a sea of money full of sharks and dangerous waters, but it is also the only market where you at least hypothetically can make $1,000,000 in two weeks starting with only $1,000.

I say hypothetically because what happens often is that people blindly gamble their money at Forex without knowing anything about it and they lose their shirt. That’s why I say to you: be careful! This market is profitable, but you need to learn the basics well, do your homework and demo trade a lot.

Just remember that 95% of traders lose money, 5% make it and less than 1% become rich at Forex. The nice thing about this market is that you can make money without creating any product or service, selling anything, nor advertising. You just trade some cash and get paid depending on your knowledge and expertise.

This is the market where banks, transnational corporations and individual traders exchange one currency for another. I am talking about the spot Forex market. You can trade at huge leverage as much as 400 to 1, meaning that for every dollar that you have for trading you can trade 400. For example if you have $1,000 on your account you can trade as much as $400,000.

This is dangerous. Most experienced traders won’t use such a high leverage. In the other hand, high leverage can be good if you learn how to use it in your favor. Anyway, that’s enough for the basics. If you want to learn more about how this market emerged, its history and so, then read my other articles.

Now let’s talk about the strategies and how some traders make money at Forex. Let’s start by saying that what works for me may not necessary work for you. Trading currencies is risky. That’s a fact. But ultimately I discovered a few strategies that could give novice traders a winning edge.

Trading Forex is not as easy as most people think. Today you may be earning a lot and tomorrow you are losing 40% of your starting capital. Novice traders often make the same mistakes over and over again. I will enumerate a few of them bellow.

1. Do not look for a holly grail of trading.

This is for people who are afraid to lose or are too greedy and want to get rich quick. Even when it seems so, The Forex Market is not the place to get rich quick. Yes, you can make a lot of money over time and yes you don’t have to sell anything, nor create or advertise any products. Still you have to learn a whole lot about what makes this market tick and what moves the price of the currencies plus how to manage your money effectively so you don’t lose your shirt.

Many novice traders spend a LOT of time searching a perfect strategy that will allow them to always win-win and never lose. They want to have guaranteed profits because they can’t stand to lose and/or they want to make too much (millions) quick so they can retire fast and buy a mansion in a far distant beautiful tropical island. It doesn’t happen.

Don’t waist your time. A trading strategy that allows you to have guaranteed profits do not exist. Trading is very risky. That’s why it is so profitable. Remember: “no risk, no reward.” So, do not try to always win on every trade. It is simply not possible. There is no way to get rid of the fact of uncertainty. What I mean is that no matter how effective your trading strategy may be, sometimes it will fail and you have to be ready to face this fact.

By not trying to find a perfect strategy that turns you into a millionaire fast, you will just save a ton of your own time and efforts. It doesn’t exist. If you find it, please don’t tell me about it. First I won’t believe you. Second I don’t need it. You will find out bellow why I say that I won’t need it.

2. Use technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

When I started trading I didn’t believe in this. I wanted to find a strategy which consisted of money management alone (which I explain bellow). This is not good! Money management is important but you still need the other two. You define (“predict”) where the market is heading to depending on how effective your technical and fundamental strategies are.

Mastering technical analysis is the ability to predict future price movements by analyzing past price data and graphical patterns. You get a graphic of certain currencies. Check the data that you observe and based on your knowledge of technical analysis you “predict” with certain degree of accuracy where the market is going.

Many brokers allow you to add technical indicators to the graphs while you are trading. You can try this on a demo account and see how well you are able to define the future price movement of the currencies you plan to trade. One of those brokers is www.oanda.com.

There are many technical indicators. I can’t tell which one will be more effective for you. Every trader is different. This is something that you will have to discover by yourself. There is not a hidden secret or magic formula for trading Forex. It is what you do every minute when you are in front of the graphics and checking the news what really counts.

The secret is in your overall knowledge and your decisions. This comes with experience and practice. If you open an account with one of these online brokers you can trade on paper before you trade with real money, so you can learn and practice before you risk any capital.

Let me tell you about a few technical indicators that you can use. You can use the MACD (Moving average convergence divergence), the Bollinger Bands, Pivot Points, RSI, Stochastic, Fibonacci, EMA, Elliot Waves and many others. There are in fact many technical indicators but these are among the most widely known and used.

When you add technical indicators to the graphic the brokers software will automatically perform mathematical calculations to reveal interesting facts and patterns about the graphics that you can’t readily see without said indicators. You can use the technical indicators to create your own technical systems.

These systems will never work 100% of the time, but if they work 70% — 80% it may be enough. That’s because you can control your risks with money management techniques as I describe bellow.

To further increase your probability of winning and reduce your probability of losing on every trade you can use fundamental analysis. I think that most traders choose one or the other but many traders use both.

Fundamental analysis is to trade the news. What is going on with the countries’s economies of the currencies that you are trading? What is the unemployment index? Did something suddenly happen that could drastically affect the price of the currencies?

Trading the news is another effective way to “predict” where the market is going. Many online brokers offer you a link with important financial news. For example www.oanda.com has this feature. You can also find financial news on the following websites:

a) www.bloomberg.com

b) www.businessweek.com

c) www.economist.com

d) money.cnn.com

e) markets.ft.com

f) www.reuters.com

g) www.fxstreet.com

3. Use money management strategies.

You need money management techniques. This is what makes you or breaks you. Put it this way, most traders invest far too much of their trading capital on every trade. It is as follows . . . “Expect to make too much and you will make too little, expect to make little and you will make a lot.”

What does it mean? It means that if you try to make a fortune on every trade you will lose your shirt. If you expect to make a little on every trade and you compound your profits, you may make a lot of money over the long run.

The first rule of money management says that you should not risk more than 1% of the money that you have on your account. You control this risk with stop loss and limit orders. When you start trading this may seem as little profits specially if you start with little trading capital. In the other hand if you compound some or all of your profits you may increase your account exponentially over time.

The magic of compound interest is amazing! This is the way that most fortunes are created on the financial markets, little by little. If you gamble your money you may lose it fast.

Many traders do exactly the opposite. Imagine that you open an account with $5,000 and you enter a trade for $1,000. Let’s say that the market moves against you and you lose those $1,000. Now you have $4,000 on your account. You think that the price for the currencies is too low, so it should recover. In fact you are pretty sure that it will come back.

Then you invest $1,500 to recover from the previous loss plus realize a $500 profit. The market moves again against you. It kept going in the same direction, something that you didn’t expected. What happens? Now you have $2,500 on your account. That’s 50% of your initial trading capital. It will be very hard for you to recover from that loss.

In the other hand, if you risk 1% of your money on every trade, you will have $4,900 on your account after that initial loss. It will be much easier for you to recover from those trades.

The second rule of money management is to expect always to receive more profits than the money that you risk to lose. This can be accomplished through limit and stop orders as well as trailing stops.

For example if you expect to make a 25 pips profits on every trade, then you put the stop order at 15 pips bellow or above your entry price. A better way to have a greater expectancy ratio is to use trailing stops as I describe above. A trailing stop allows you to cut the loses short and let your winners ride.

These are the basic techniques that a successful trader should use to generate consistent profits at the Forex Market. This is basic information, but I realize that many people out there don’t even know what Forex is, so I didn’t want to get into more complex strategies here. You will find information about complex and advanced Forex strategies on my website.

Forex Trading Systems: Mechanical Vs. Discretionary Systems

  • Post author: Admin
  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
  • No Comments

There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based off technical analysis applied in a systematic way. On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits. But which one produces better results? Or more importantly, which one fits better your trading style? These are the answers we will try to answer on this article.

We will first analyze the pros and cons about each system approach.

Mechanical systems

Advantages

This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.

It has very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn’t.

Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.

Disadvantages

Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.

The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.

A system that worked successfully the past year doesn’t necessary mean it will work this year.

Discretionary systems

Advantages

Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.

Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have higher probability of success.

Disadvantages

They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a thought decision to be made.

It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. At early stages this can be dangerous.

Now, which approach is better for Forex traders? The one that fits better your personality. For instance, if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won’t play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.

If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.

On the other hand, if you are a disciplined trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade. But the market suddenly starts trending up pretty strongly, then you could move your target to say 100 pips.

Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get in the market, and so on.

I am a discretionary trader. The main reason I chose a discretionary system is that my trades are based on price behavior, and as you already know, the price behaves similar to the past, but it is never identical, therefore the outcome of every trade is unknown. However, I do have rigid rules on my system, certain conditions have to be met before I even think in getting in a trade. This keeps me out of trouble, once my setup is present and in accordance with the rules I have set, then I closely watch the price behavior and finally decide whether it is a good opportunity or not.

Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:

1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system.

2. You also need to have some rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.

3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It’s not easy and requires time and hard work, but at the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.

4. Before going live, try it on a demo account or even on a small account (I will go for the second option, since psychological barriers will be present.)

Why You Need To Develop Your Own Trading System

  • Post author: Admin
  • Date posted: December 7th, 2011
  • No Comments

There are many trading systems and strategies out there. There are many free ones printed in trading articles, journals, books and on trading-related websites. You can buy them as software or you can subscribe to them periodically.

Novice traders say they do not have the time, the aptitude, the talent nor the brains to work out how to trade properly. They would rather purchase a program or subscribe to a trading system for hundreds — or in some cases — thousands of dollars. They say they do not have to do anything except be told what to buy, when to buy and how much of it you need to buy. Some ask me if this strategy or approach is advisable for trading the financial markets. To answer this question, I am then forced to consider the advantages and disadvantages of using such an approach to trading.

There are reasons why a trader would use a system or strategy that someone else developed and tested:

1. It is easy. A novice trader does not need to study how the market works and how he interacts with that market. He does not need to educate himself: he does not need to bother with books and seminars. He does not need to test the system, since the seller has already done that for him and reported promising hypothetical or actual results.

2. A novice trader hopes to get a trading system at a ‘bargain’ price: sometimes even for free.

Hazards of trading a system or strategy developed and tested by someone else are the following:

1. Faulty Systems

There are many faulty systems out there. They may be faulty because their assumptions and their mechanisms may no longer be true, accurate or valid. As a novice trader, how can you distinguish between the good systems and the bad systems if you don’t know how trading systems are built?

2. Discipline and confidence

All systems have drawdown periods. Some good systems may not make money for six months or an entire year. Even if it was a good system, can you continue to follow it even if it gives you a loss after a loss after a loss? How can you follow it if you do not have confidence in it? How can you be confident if you do not know the ins and outs of the system and if you have not tested it yourself?

I do not believe that people would blindly follow a system even if they were told that it would bring them riches. I can give someone a trading system, I can supply him with exceptional hypothetical or actual results and still, he would not be able to follow it.

I remember giving my dad a fully-mechanical trading system I developed. I told him a few simple rules and I told him not to question them. All he had to do was to follow them. We both traded it for two months, I grew my small account by roughly 50% (it happened to be a good two months), but he was losing. He wondered why. I asked to see his trading records. When I looked at his trading records, I found that he kept disobeying the rules. When I asked him why he disobeyed them, he wanted to improve the results after it had a couple of losing trades. He was trying to improve the results. According to him, the system asked him to do what he thought was not right during certain market conditions, so he did not follow it. I found simple errors too, including opening trades at market price instead of waiting for buy and sell stop orders at support and resistance levels to get triggered. I also asked that he executes trades at the close, but oftentimes he traded two hours before or after the close at his discretion. There were many more rules he breached. He is a smart man: a former civil engineer and now a manager for a big organisation. Why could he not follow instructions? It is simple. He did not know the reasons behind the rules I had set and so he did not appreciate them. His money was on the line and after a series of losses, he lost faith in the system easier than I did because he did not develop and test it himself.

To overcome the hazards above, I see no way except for a trader to learn how to develop his own trading methodology. This is the only way a trader can know if a particular system or strategy is good or not.

Once a trader learns how to develop systems and strategies, he can then be better equipped to test them as well. By this point he might even find that he is better off using the system he created, because it becomes increasingly difficult to find another system more suited to his profit objectives while operating within his risk tolerance levels. It is likely that once he develops this level of competence, he will simply acquire other systems only to dissect them, grab the parts he likes and add them to his own system. To me, the irony is that for a trader to know which system to purchase, he must first learn how to create a system. And after knowing how to create a system, he will no longer have the need to buy one.

In conclusion then, I would have to say that if you are not inclined to learn how to develop your own trading methodology, then perhaps you should consider giving your money for someone else to invest. Give it to someone who is trading a system that he developed and tested himself because he is more likely to have the confidence and courage to follow his own set of rules.

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