Archive for November, 2007

4 Reasons Why Traders Lose

Why do certain traders win consistently lose? Here are four reasons:

  1. Not having a proven trading methodology.
    Those who consistently lose don’t know key numbers. They have no understanding of support and resistance. Chart patterns are foreign to them. Their definition of risk management is getting margin called. With no proven trading method or strategy, you are doomed to fail. You will end up quitting the game after a string of losses. But there is hope. With the right education, a workable method, psychological balance and persistence, it can be done.
  2. Not understanding how the market works, key indicators, key numbers, and ideal times to trade.
    When you place a trade, you literally go toe-to-toe against some of the biggest nerds in the world. Many professional traders are not only super smart and Ivy League educated, they’re also rich. That doesn’t mean that you, the small guy or gal, can’t win.It just means that you simply must educate yourself and be prepared to do battle. David can beat Goliath, but only if he’s prepared. Some people might think the cost of a trading education is too high. But the cost of ignorance is way more expensive.
  3. Risking too much per trade.
    The wannabe trader risks 10% or more of her trading account on a single trade. Real deal traders understand risk and manage it FIRST before thinking about profit. They don’t take trades if it forces them to risk too much. Pros keep their risk below 2% of their account balance. This gives them the staying power to survive multiple losing trades in a row without turning into a worry wart.
  4. Not being mentally prepared.
    Psychology is a huge part of trading and most people are not mentally prepared. When money is on the line, fear, greed, and other emotions make trading very hard. Make sure you understand the emotional aspects of trading and be prepared to deal with them before you put your money on the line.

Source: Babypips.com

Dow Rises 300 Points, Triggering a Turn in Carry Trades

The Dow has rallied more than 500 points over the past 2 trading days, triggering a sharp rebound in all of the Japanese Yen crosses. Carry trades are back with a vengeance, but the question at the forefront of everyone’s minds is whether this trend will continue. Without a doubt the move in the Dow is impressive, but USD/JPY is struggling to sustain its gains above 110 which suggest that further gains in carry trades may be limited. This is especially true since the move in both the Dow and carry trades have been fueled by nothing other than risk appetite and the latest US releases validate the market’s belief that Federal Reserve needs to continue lowering interest rates. The curve is pricing in a 92 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut next month followed by the possibility of another quarter point cut in the first quarter of 2008. The first test of whether the gains in carry trades can be sustained will be when Tokyo opens for trading tonight. Japanese industrial production and small business confidence are due for release this evening, but it should matter little to a market focused on risk appetite. Instead, keep an eye on China. Last night a Chinese newspaper suggested that the government could widen the trading band or make another one off revaluation. The odds are low, but unexpected events like these are exactly what triggers big moves in the currency market.

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist, DailyFx.

Read full article here.

Source: DailyFx

Dollar Falls Below 108 Against Yen [USD]

This morning in Asia, the US dollar weakened heavily against the yen as investors pared back exposure to risky trade. The dollar-yen pair fell below 108 level and hit a new 2 ½ -year low of 107.54. This was compared to yesterday’s close of 108.46.

The dollar lost ground against its European counterparts too. The dollar slumped to a new record low of 1.4967 against the euro and 1.0887 against the franc. Against the pound, the dollar fell to a multi-day low of 2.0764. The dollar had closed yesterday’s deals at 1.4850 per euro, 1.1013 against the franc and 2.0620 versus the pound.

Read full article here.

Taken from: MoneyForex.com

Source: RTTNews.com

Dollar At a Standstill – Which Way Next?

Was it a pause that refreshes or a sign of an intermediate term top? Dollars bulls and bears battled each other to a standstill as the pair tried but failed to make a new record high. On the other hand any attempts to take it lower were met with steadfast bids. As we noted earlier in the week, ‘the market remains resolutely dollar bearish, keeping any retracements in the EURUSD relatively shallow. Only if the EURUSD breaks below the important 1.4500 figure will we have confidence that a serious correction in the pair has commenced. For the time being the market continues to give the benefit of the doubt to the ECB while expecting the Fed to steadily lower rates.’

Read full article here.

Source: DailyFx

Will Retail Sales Be Strong Enough to Trigger a Turn in the US Dollar?

Even though the US dollar has seen some big moves over the past two trading days, the volatility was not triggered by a shift in the market’s attitude towards the dollar but instead by the sharp swings in the US equity markets and carry trades. This dynamic will change when we receive the reports on US retail sales and producer prices tomorrow. Normally these numbers can single handedly make or break it for the US dollar but unfortunately traders these days have become very skeptical. The forecasts for retail sales are low which means that even if they come out better than expected the market will question whether a strong pace of spending is sustainable. With non-farm payrolls holding steady over the past few months, consumer spending may be less affected by higher food and energy costs. Also, gas prices did not tick higher until November which means that there is a stronger case for dollar positive numbers. Pending home sales today was good as well, rising by 0.2 percent instead of dropping 2.5 percent like the market expected. As for inflation, analysts are expecting a tepid rise on month to month basis, but on an annualized basis, inflation growth is expected to hit a 2 year high. The combination of a weaker dollar and rising food and energy prices should lead to stronger inflation. Whether that will have a lasting impact on the US dollar however remains to be seen. When Bernanke gave his testimony to the Joint Economic Committee last week he focused more heavily on the downside risks to growth than the upside risk to inflation. Tomorrow’s numbers will tell us whether Bernanke’s balance of risk assessment was right.

Read full article here.

Source: Daily Fx

Wholesale Inventories Rise Much More Than Expected

The Department of Commerce released its report on wholesale trade in the month of September on Wednesday, showing that wholesale inventories rose much more than expected while wholesale sales also showed a notable increase.

Read full article here.

Source: MoneyForex

Forex – Malaysian Ringgit Soars To New Multi-year High Against Dollar [USD/MYR]

On Thursday morning in Asia, the Malaysian Ringgit advanced against the US dollar. The Ringgit hit a new multi-year high of 3.3306 at 11:10 pm ET, compared to 3.3375 late Wednesday in New York. The Ringgit then declined slightly and the pair is currently worth 3.334. The US dollar plunged against the other major currencies as the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the Malaysian central bank left it overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.5%. The decision came in line with economists’ expectations. In an accompanying statement, the apex bank said that Malaysia’s economic fundamentals continue to remain sound. Domestic demand has been the key driving force behind the headline GDP growth number. The bank believed that the strength of domestic fundamentals will help mitigate the impact, arising from higher oil prices and the uncertainty in the global financial markets.

Source: RTTNews

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